沃伦·巴菲特’s Peek Into the Financial Abyss

The Woodstock of capitalism got a coronavirus makeover on Saturday.

伯克希尔赫瑟韦耶首席执行官伯克希尔·赫达瓦河担忧沃伦·巴菲特星期六举行法院，在一名现场股东大会上会议 - 没有通常的人群，促销或嘉年华氛围。或者他的长期朋友和陪咖啡，伯克希尔副主席查理芒果。

然而，观众获得了更好的事情：自2008-09财务危机自2008 - 09年度金融危​​机自2008-09年度最陡峭的市场抛售之后，伯克希尔为什么坐在最大的1370亿美元上，而不是捕捞下跌股票或者整套公司。奥马哈的甲骨文首次讲述了一个怪物空洞的礼堂，首次信用市场在3月份几乎抓住了信贷市场，因为Covid-19大流行和相关的经济关闭了惩罚股票 - 并派公司争先恐后地挖掘他们的信用额度，将市场扣除金融优势。

“我们非常接近于对依赖它的世界上最大的公司的信贷完全冻结，”巴菲特说。首席财务官是石化的。“恐惧是你可以想象的最具传染病的疾病，”他说。

在杰罗姆·鲍威尔主席下的美联储迅速且大规模地回应了3月23日，推出了其前所未有的无限债务购买刺激包。正是近乎灾难，一个极端的银行体系，至少暂时在伯克郡对利用其13.7亿美元的现金和财政票据购买伯克希尔的胃口，以购买殴打击败公司和股票。

“我们永远不想依赖，不仅是陌生人的善意，而是朋友的善意，”他争吵。显然包括美联储和鲍威尔董事长。“我们在基础上准备，我们不会有这样的主席，”巴菲特说。

美国银行系统的不稳定状态并不广为人知。宾夕法尼亚州兰开斯特自1990年以来，加德纳·卢萨瑟和加德纳的托马斯Russo表示，在面对银行危机，托马斯Russo表示，我们不知道我们对其面对银行业危机有多努力。““我们靠近悬崖。”

[II深潜水：II Fear Index: Investors Expect Long Lockdown]

对于那些希望在年会的Buffett的全部清楚的“购买”信号的人，嗯，没有一个，因为美联储资产负债表的肿胀。“我们不知道这一点的后果，”巴菲特说，在焦炭之间。“我们不知道我们无疑要做的事情的后果。”

他指出，2008 - 09年度金融危​​机如何展开阶段。“第一天你没有看到所有问题，”巴菲特说。“有其他事情的东西，我们考虑了一个非常糟糕的情况。”

尽管近灾变附近，但仍然不言而喻，巴菲特仍然向美国的经济复苏队长期担任美国的经济复苏，毕竟是一个咒语为他的咒语。有大量的数据驱动的观察结果，例如从1789年到今天的美国财富的增长，他计算的数量为5,000至1次爆炸。

And Buffett peppered his presentation with witticisms from his value investing mentor, Benjamin Graham; former Chicago Mayor and White House chief of staff Rahm Emmanuel; and of course, the character Blanche DuBois from Tennessee William’s seminal play, “A Streetcar Named Desire.”

But Buffett’s relentless message was one of caution. “What we didn’t hear was ‘Jump right in because fear is dominating the market right now’,” said Meyer Shields, insurance analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. “[The question] appears to be in Warren Buffett’s mind, ‘Is there too much uncertainty?’”

事实上，巴菲特引用了20岁加上的延伸，从1929年到1951年，道琼斯工业平均水平将在市场崩溃和大萧条之后重新获得其峰值。

“Anything can happen in the markets,” he warned, and then added a pointed qualifier to his ‘Bet on America’ mantra. “You can bet on America, but you better be careful how you bet.”

All this comes at a pointed time for Buffett, who turns 90 in August. For more than a decade now, value investors have grown increasingly frustrated as Berkshire Hathaway shares, along with value stocks in general, have trailed the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index. In early afternoon trading Monday, Berkshire Hathaway class A shares were down $7,362, or 2.69 percent, at $265,900. Class B shares, which on an economic basis are worth one-fifteen-hundredth of the A class shares, were down $5.73, or 3.08 percent, at $177.12.

They likely remained frustrated as Buffett on Saturday pointedly suggested he did not necessarily expect Berkshire Hathaway to outperform the index going forward. “In my opinion, the best thing to do is own the S&P 500 index fund,” he said.

Statements like that irk Bill Smead, chief investment officer of value-focused Smead Capital Management in Seattle and a longtime Berkshire shareholder. “Does he work for State Street or BlackRock?,” he fumed. “If I was his board I’d fire him. This virus has got him scared.”

其他人说了一剂现实主义可能是秩序的。“我们没有看到这些惊人的一次性投资机会，”盾牌说。“我认为对表现优惠的期望被夯实了。”

巴菲特指出,开放和美联储“龙头”interest rates low, this is a poor time for Berkshire to be lending money, which he did to companies including General Electric & Co., Goldman Sachs Group, and Bank of America Corp. in the 2008-09 financial crisis, generating outrageous profit.

Today’s interest rates preclude that. “There is no shortage of funds at rates which we would not invest at,” Buffett said.

Nevertheless there are, Buffett argued, plenty of places to put Berkshire money to work going forward, especially at capital-hungry subsidiary companies like Berkshire Hathaway Energy, the utility operator.

“资本的内部机会在那里，”Russo说。

不过，巴菲特在审查，如果不批评，由一些投资者未能收回更多Berkshire Hathawayshares. Since July 2018, the company has been authorized to buy back shares when they trade below either Buffett’s and Munger’s estimation of their intrinsic value, conservatively determined.

In the first quarter of 2020, as the price of the Berkshire A shares plummeted, the company’s 10-Q filing shows Berkshire bought back a relatively paltry $1.7 billion of its stock.

在2019年12月的最后一周，该公司购买了674级股份，平均价格为333,298.06美元。

通过the time Berkshire class A shares had tumbled to a low of $240,000 on March 23, the company had stopped buying them back altogether. The class A shares finished the quarter at $272,000 a piece.

“我们感到震惊地看到，巴菲特在3月10日停止购买伯克郡的股票，并没有回购任何公司之间的任何公司在4月底之间的常见股票，”晨星部门战略师Greggory Warren写道。

In response to a question at the meeting, Buffett said he doesn’t view Berkshire stock as a particular bargain. “I don’t think Berkshire shares relative to present value are at a significantly different discount that they were when we were paying somewhat higher prices,” he said.

“The value of certain things has decreased,” he added. “Keynes said, or whoever it was: ‘Facts change. I change my mind; what do you do, sir?’”