A global pandemic. Massive job losses. Consumer product shortages. Police brutality. Unsettling images of violent riots juxtaposed against peaceful civil disobedience. 2020 has been one thing after and another, and to say it has created a lot of stress for many people would be an understatement.
然而，尽管这些压力源，但生活就会继续。决定 - 仍然必须制造大而小，重要或微不足道。不幸的是，我们在最好的时候并不是最伟大的做出复杂的决定。和压力只会让它变得更糟。
心理学研究指出了一些潜在的原因。有些研究表明，压力水平提高导致我们注意狭窄。人类已经倾向于专注于经常无关紧要，但在做出决定时易于访问的特征。熟悉的偏见和新闻效应的因素是潜在的机构投资者对当地企业或零售投资者的超重股票，最近在头条新闻中购买股票 - 习惯导致亚博赞助欧冠较低的回报。
当所有的头条新闻都不糟糕时，我们觉得不堪重负，我们采用更简单的信息处理方式，依赖更严重的是制定决策的这种肤浅信息。恐慌销售在底部只是因为一切都在红色可能会缓解我们的急压力，但它不太可能成为一个巨大的投资决策。
其他的研究表明,压力不太大le feel, the more inclined they are to see patterns that don’t exist.德克萨斯大学的研究人员形成了两组本科生 - 一组是一个简单的任务，另一个是一个不可能和令人沮丧的任务。当介绍真实的实验时，旨在衡量其识别模式的能力，所需的学生报告说更多地看到数码图片中不存在的图像，并始终如一地选择某些库存，基于实际随机，不相关的数据。
Time and again, the group that felt more stress claimed to see images where there were none and found stock patterns that didn't truly exist. It’s not terribly difficult to see how this could impede real-world investment decisions.
However,struggling to remain rational in the face of stress isn’t merely a test of will. There are actual physiological mechanisms at work when we are acutely stressed out that impair our ability to make rational, clear-headed decisions.
急性压力源引发我们的腺体，将激素皮质醇水平升高到我们的循环系统中，作为所谓的“战斗或飞行”反应的一部分。本过程的一部分也降低了我们前额前皮层的活动，其中思维发生，而肾上腺素同时提高基本的生理活动，例如增加我们的心率和呼吸。我们的身体正在推动一个二进制，但关键决定：攻击威胁或逃离它。这些机制有助于这种简单的工作。
但研究表明，在面对更复杂的问题时，皮质醇水平升高的个体风险越来越大。One study给予测试对象的口服类固醇，而对照组接受安慰剂。然后要求受试者选择几种不同的赌场。那些摄取氢化可源素平板电脑的人始终如一地制造了最风险，最糟糕的赌注。
因为我们迅速决定捍卫自己或逃离身体威胁，因此在迅速称重复杂的赔率方面，它可以迅速地解除自己或逃离自己的速度，而且迅速地冒出来。
即使是显然是无害的，因为有点疲惫或饥饿可能会影响我们的判断。其他interesting studyinvestigated factors affecting the decisions of parole judges. While the authors hoped that variables such as the facts of the case, severity of the crime, and prior precedents would drive impartial judicial decision making, they were dismayed to find that the single most highly correlated factor with decision was time of day. In the morning, early afternoon, and after a late day break, parolees received a favorable ruling about 65 percent of the time. However, in the hour or so before lunch and before the afternoon break, the percentage of prisoners granted parole fell precipitously to zero.
疲惫和饥饿的法官根本没有精神耐力所需的理由刻意，因此他们成为最能节能的决定：否则是一切。再次，他们并不难以理解投资相似之处可能是什么。
我们在做出决定时渴望确定并使用心理捷径。压力会增加对这些启发式的依赖，使我们更容易发生在那里的项目模式，这反过来让我们比通常的更过于自信。对这些压力源的生物反应使我们能够在大多数迂回时准确地做出更极端的决定。
In his bookThe Behavioral Investor，行为金融大师丹尼尔·克罗斯比为读者提供了一种伟大的缩写，即投资者应该如何处理急性压力的时刻。在进行任何投资决定时，投资者应该首先尝试评估他们的情绪状态。如果他们感觉到：
- 饥饿的
- 生气的
- Lonely
- 疲劳的
They should HALT! And not make any investment decisions in the spur of the moment. Walk away, get some space, some rest, some time and perspective before returning to the decision with a clear head once the emotional state has passed. Emotions are chemical reactions; simply letting them pass can fix a good deal of the ills.
但是，这首先需要一点EQ或情绪智力。我经常看到投资专业人士试图通过简单地装瓶来“控制”他们的情绪，假装他们没有它们。这永远不会有效。而不是控制他们，只是否认愤怒或沮丧，覆盖它意味着你可能会对这些情绪的影响作出决定而不知道后果。
拥有情感，承认它，让自己体验它。我们是情绪化的;没有耻辱！在当下的热量中，不要做出任何决定。
另一种管理方法情绪对我们决策的影响是通过预定义的再平衡或交易规则来系统化流程。例如，如果资产类别下降或升高一定数量，亚博赞助欧冠许多机构投资者将经常自动重新平衡返回目标分配，如有一定数量的比例。如果股票市场跌至5％，他们将增加其目标分配，如果它升高5％，他们将销售以退回。
No emotion possible there; algorithms don’t have feelings. While they may not be perfect, helping us remain disciplined during times of stress is precisely the strength of such systematic tools.
However, stress is not always acute. Our body’s response to acute stressors — that fight or flight response I mentioned before — is typically immediate. Along with cortisol, production of adrenaline is also stimulated, which provides the boost of energy required to deal with the immediate threat.
But chronic stress is different. Chronic stress occurs when there isn’t any urgent danger facing us. Whether it’s the persistent daily pressure of long days, heavy workloads, or demanding bosses, there may not be a direct target for our adrenal response, but there is certainly stress.
这种持续的压力突然导致慢性暴露于升高的皮质醇水平 - 在我们的血液中永久性较高水平的皮质醇是一件非常糟糕的事情。类似于急性皮质醇曝光，降低了我们判断的质量和评估客观概率的能力。然而，研究其对金融决策的影响表明，虽然它显着改变了我们的风险偏好，但它在急性暴露的相反方向方面。
Instead of stimulating aggressive risk taking, chronic stress results in sub-optimally low levels of overall risk taking. It is an important effect to consider when assessing required staffing and processes of large capital allocators.
Even more problematic: Chronic stress is also correlated with a host of serious mental and physical medical issues as well, such as anxiety, depression, obesity, hypertension and heart disease. It should be pretty obvious how this reduces the quality of life of employees, while simultaneously lowering their job performance and increasing overall costs.
Perhaps these insights cast new light on our industry’s tendency towards marathon workdays, the pressure of constant deadlines, and the never-ending quest to win that next deal. That six-hour due diligence meeting might not be so much a testament to your endurance as it is your folly.
Rather, we should try to implement disciplined, rules-based processes for as much of the day-to-day investment decision making as we can. The more often something gets done, the more we should automate it as much as possible. We should limit truly discretionary judgement to only the most strategic and impactful long-term decisions, and we should allocate dedicated white space on our calendar to them.
这可能意味着在资产业主获得资产阶层董事，以使经理招聘和射击决定 - 根据投资政策声明指南，当然 - 类似于投资组合管理人员如何在资产管理人员购买和销售各自证券的决定，而无需转到正式委员会。单身的。时间。
这也意味着消除了与这些步骤相关的很多忙碌。这是否是毫无意见的会议的面对时间，复制和粘贴备忘录的页面增加了很少的原始内容，以及与他们相关的所有截止日期和规划，有时更少。消除非增值手续可能会释放尽可能多为25％至50％的投资工作时间。
And more effective stress management for investment professionals would not only make employees happier and healthier, it would help investment firms make better decisions on behalf of their clients and beneficiaries. And maybe that also would give stressed out end investors a little peace of mind.