It was, in the words of airlines analyst Hunter Keay, “the worst crisis in the history of the industry.”
Coronavirus大流行对航空公司的毁灭性打击，以及其他消费领域，因为他们的客户进入锁定并恢复过夜。在餐厅行业，名人堂分析师John Blass说这是“我们在预测方面最具挑战性的时期。”
添加了摩根士丹利董事总经理，“基本上，你必须把你迄今为止的所有工作都扔掉并扔掉。”
As Covid-19 cases mounted in the U.S. and abroad, sell-side analysts were suddenly bombarded with questions about the industries at the center of the economic and public health crises. Some, like Glass and Keay, had the impossible task of predicting the future of companies that had been completely disrupted. Others, like pharmaceuticals analyst Umer Raffat and telecom researcher Tal Liani, watched investor demand surge for their stocks, which were seen as part of the solution to 2020’s biggest challenges.
Below, five危机明星share their views on some of the sectors changed by the coronavirus pandemic — for better or worse.
John Glass, Morgan Stanley
Consumer — Restaurants (No. 1)
How has Covid-19 impacted the sector you cover?
It turned the industry on its head.
Covid-19 was initially believed to be the worst thing that could ever happen to an industry like restaurants. There was a significant amount of doubt about the future for these businesses.
What’s happened since then is investors have gone from thinking it’s the worst thing to maybe it’s a positive catalyst for the industry. Restaurants were forced to make the tough decisions and quickly pivot.
The restaurant industry comes out probably stronger than it went in. Digital adoption has been accelerated by years in a matter of months. We’re not out of the woods yet; sales are still down, but off the bottom, sales are improving. Consumers have proven they want restaurant food one way or the other. At least for larger chains, many of these may end up being stronger.
How has Covid-19 impacted your job as an analyst?
Overnight we went from stock analysts to business analysts. Historically, we’ve cared about balance sheets and cash flows, but they weren’t [our] primary focus. We cared more about earnings. It really was a different job. Essentially, you had to take all the work you had done year-to-date and throw it out. And obviously we’re all doing this remotely, so there’s added layers of stress.
I think we’re now back to what’s more normalized, but there’s still a task ahead. How do you forecast 2021? How do you sort out those that did well in ’20 and whether they will do well in ’21? How fast can adversely impacted restaurants come back in ’21?
This is the most challenging period we’ve ever had in terms of forecasting. You can’t just take last year’s trends and extend them out — there’s just so many more open questions.
您最密切关注哪些库存？为什么？
早期的名字在推荐的情况下，最终最终的一些名字是多米诺骨牌和麦当劳。
现在我们真的不得不考虑后来的恢复故事：当人们回去工作时，星巴克如何展开 - 或者不要回去工作？多米诺骨牌在2021年的2020年销售的显着增加如何？
我不认为有任何股票我可以说我不需要专注于。在201中是否确实很好，我们仍然必须担心它在2001年将如何做到。现在一切都很重要。
What will your sector look like after the pandemic is over?
I think there could be more significant changes over time. What is the real estate landscape going to look like? Are there going to be a lot more available sites, and will that provide growth opportunities? What are formats that need to change? If you were focused on urban customers, do you need to focus on suburban? Do you need the same amount of dining rooms? Do you need separate facilities for delivery or takeout?
它已被称为Covid-19没有改变事情，它只是加速了已经发生的变化。消费者已经消耗了更多的餐馆食物。这一直加速了。是的，人们仍然会聚集在餐馆，但对其他来源有更多的需求，无论是下属还是交付或者数字订购食物的能力。
We haven’t seen it yet, but will new virtual-only competitors emerge? Traditionally, when a new competitor started you could see them coming because they would open one restaurant, then another, then another. Now brands have potential to emerge overnight. Will competition be more agile?
如果客户需要了解您的覆盖范围的一件事，那将是什么？
人们仍然要吃。
我不认为要求最终被摧毁在这里。餐馆服务一个角色;这是他们如何为不同的角色提供不同的角色。但餐馆的功能不会从根本上变化;人们想要吃不准备自己的食物。由于大流行，这个行业可能更强大，而不是较弱。
Hunter Keay, Wolfe Research
Consumer — Airlines (No. 1)
How has Covid-19 impacted the sector you cover?
这是毁灭性的 - 行业历史上最严重的危机。它比9/11更糟糕，全球金融危机合并。该行业以前对系统感到震惊，但没有这样做。
It really has undone ten years of productive growth and what a lot of people considered at the time to be very smart management decisions have completely come undone in a matter of six months. And the stocks reflect that.
How has Covid-19 impacted your job as an analyst?
I travel a lot less — which as an airline analyst is certainly interesting.
It changed the way I think about stock recommendations. We still try to stay focused on the long term, but realized we live in a world where the duration of these investments and holding periods have become incredibly short-term–oriented.
Also, unfortunately, it has made me focus on a lot more uncontrollable factors, like politics and vaccine progress — things that are external. That always makes the job less enjoyable when you are forced to consider so many factors that are totally out of control. It makes your role as a fundamental analyst less relevant. People don’t want my opinions on politics and vaccine progress; they want my opinions on balance sheets and cash flow — and that’s a secondary consideration right now.
您最密切关注哪些库存？为什么？
当然，美国航空公司。
They are perceived by most investors to be the tip of the whip — if things get a little better or a little worse, their stock is getting a lot better or worse. There’s a lot of short interest in the name; it’s a very liquid stock; they were underperforming on most metrics going into the pandemic. It’s piqued the interest of investors on a potential turnaround story: The pandemic is either going to make them a lot better, or it’s going to be the final blow. Really, it’s a fascinating company to cover, because it embodies everything going on in the airlines industry.
In terms of the stock I’m most optimistic on, I would say it’s probably Copa Airlines.
What will your sector look like after the pandemic is over?
这将是铁道部背负约40%e debt than it had prior to the pandemic. The prospects of paying that debt down are probably going to be measured in multiple-year time frames. The entirety of the next business cycle will be consumed by trying to chip away at this debt, which is a fairly depressing thought.
I think there’s going to be a certain amount of demand destruction that’s not going to come back, and there’s not much airlines can do. You’ll see an evolution in the airlines’ business model. You’ll see certain airlines more clearly pursuing certain types of customers, whether it’s based on where they live or based on travel habits. You’ll see industry carved up more clearly.
The reality is the industry can’t get that much smaller, just because of the sheer amount of debt they’ve raised that has to be repaid. There’s a certain amount of raw dollars that have to be generated that airlines are going to need to fix their balance sheets.
如果客户需要了解您的覆盖范围的一件事，那将是什么？
This industry is generally at its best when the challenges are the greatest — but there is a limit to that statement. The shock to the demand has been incredible. It’s been absolutely devastating.
Usually the way the industry works is the recovery is W-shaped. There’s probably going to be a pretty big W in here, and I’m not talking about what we saw this summer. I’m talking about a big W. We saw this after the global financial crisis. It took a modest recovery followed by another mini shock that really drove the industry to restructure and improve itself. There was a period of pain in 2011 that had to occur for airlines to really understand that this problem is not going away.
我不知道第二次击中将是什么 - 它很可能是完全外部的东西。2005年，它是卡特里娜飓风。
你真的要小心追回，因为历史表明可能有一个非常大的假开始。所以你应该相应地计划。
Tal Liani, BofA Securities
技术，媒体与电信 - 电信和网络设备（1号）
How has Covid-19 impacted the sector(s) you cover?
Networking and cybersecurity are two segments that were impacted the most from the work-from-home migration. Consumer traffic spiked about 30 to 50 percent, driven by family Zoom sessions, Netflix, and other such video services, and employee traffic also increased. This spike has created strong demand for networking gear to support the sheer growth in bandwidth requirements, but also demand for specialty equipment that enables employees to securely connect to the office, like firewalls and application delivery controllers. If, before the pandemic, network managers had to manage traffic generated within a single building in midtown New York, now they have to bring in traffic from 6,000 homes that are widely dispersed geographically all along the Northeast coast.
In addition, Covid-19 expedited processes of migration to the cloud. In the first wave, service providers like AT&T and Verizon purchased new equipment as well as utilizing existing capacity of equipment already installed. Yet after a few months, they put forward plans to utilize cloud-based solutions that are more suitable for a work-from-home environment.
How has Covid-19 impacted your job as an analyst?
在个人的基础上,我必须见广泛使用o conferencing solutions that replace the face-to-face meetings with corporates and investors. It has increased my efficiency, and the production of reports and ideas went up dramatically. My analysis didn’t change, as my covered companies adapted quickly to the new situation. Most companies migrated their quarterly conference calls to Zoom sessions. I had more free time to increase the frequency of contacts with the corporates and clients, and in general, outside of the social aspect of work-from-home, my work efficacy only improved.
您最密切关注哪些库存？为什么？
Covid-19 expedited the move to the cloud, and related stocks appreciated in value substantially.
Crowdstrike和Zscaler等网络安全的名称从这种趋势受益，估值相应增加。然而，有趣的部分与5G有关。
Covid-19 had a negative impact on carrier spending, and 5G system vendors like Nokia, Ericsson, and Commscope faced general pressure, mostly stemming from their pushing out deployment plans. Nevertheless, 5G is a key investment area for the service providers, and we expect to see spending recovery next year, benefiting the stocks in our 5G basket: Qualcomm, Nokia, Ericsson, Commscope, and, to a smaller extent, Amdocs.
大流行结束后，你的部门会看起来像什么？
我们不认为我们的意见发生了大流行病的重大变化。大流行加速的云移民是一种世俗趋势，对企业具有巨大的经济利益。虽然大流行推动客户做出决定并开始将工作量和服务迁移到云端，但更改本身就是独立于大流行，并且可能会留在当前的速度上。我们还认为，5G，CyberSecurity和迁移到软件（来自硬件）是长期世俗趋势，使这些迁移的系统将继续看到卓越的增长率。我们突出的风险是估值风险。二十二十个令人惊讶的是，供应商能够使云移民和供应商能够从事从家中受益的供应商，与最近的历史相比，估值很高。
如果客户需要了解您的覆盖范围的一件事，那将是什么？
Be contrarian. It pays off in the long run. And to apply it to the current time: We find more value in neglected 5G stocks [that] could benefit from an upcycle in the coming years than high-flying 25x revenue stocks that already have high street expectations.
Umer Raffat, Evercore ISI
医疗保健 - 生物技术/大帽（第1号）
医疗保健 - 药品/主要（1号）
Health Care — Pharmaceuticals/Specialty (No. 1)
How has Covid-19 impacted the sector(s) you cover?
Perhaps more important, the progress made by biopharmas on vaccines and therapeutics enabled the industry to finally find itself mentioned on a positive note in media and policy circles after a very long time.
How has Covid-19 impacted your job as an analyst?
作为治疗分析师，跟踪Covid疫苗和药物数据创造了一个完全新的治疗区域来跟踪。此外，[本]生物野蛮行业在Covid期间从基金流量受益，这创造了一个不寻常的资本提高和新产品，从而从不断扩大的覆盖范围内创造了重大增加的工作量。
您最密切关注哪些库存？为什么？
Pfizer and Merck for Covid vaccine. Eli Lilly and Gilead for Covid therapeutics. Biogen for a possible disease-modifying drug approval in Alzheimer’s.
大流行结束后，你的部门会看起来像什么？
I expect more innovation in the vaccines space — and we’re already seeing early signs of increased development in respiratory viruses beyond Covid, starting with RSV [a common respiratory virus].
如果客户需要了解您的覆盖范围的一件事，那将是什么？
在提出该行业的繁荣n, and there is an unusual convergence of scientific advances and capital into biopharma.
A.J.米饭，信用瑞士
Health Care — Health Care Facilities & Managed Care (No. 1)
How has Covid-19 impacted the sector you cover?
At the beginning of the year, we were worried Covid-19 would cause extra costs for managed care companies, but it actually caused people to defer procedures. So all year long, managed care companies have been looking to do what they can do to be good corporate citizens.
On the flip side, the providers have experienced people not wanting to go to facilities. In the second quarter we saw as big a dip in utilization as we’ve ever seen covering the space for 20-plus years. It’s on the rebound, but it’s had quite the impact and there’s been economic spillover.
How has Covid-19 impacted your job as an analyst?
2001年9月11日，我在Merrill Lynch，我们遍布了世界贸易中心的广场。在我们[得到]后我们被淘汰了三个月。
This was sort of déjà-vu all over again.
Having that experience, I remembered what clients wanted: the ability to get in touch with you, even when it wasn’t easy. It just went from a local issue to a national scale, and we pulled all those things off the shelf and have continued to just stay in front of clients and, as the world has evolved, try to be responsive as possible.
您最密切关注哪些库存？为什么？
Certainly, the most interest has been on the managed care names in general. I find in these types of environments people tend to gravitate in times of uncertainty to what they perceive to be the biggest and best. That’s led people to focus on names like UnitedHealth this year.
There’s also companies that are in secular growth areas that are somewhat immune from the economy. Names like Humana, which is the closest thing to pure-play Medicare.
What will your sector look like after the pandemic is over?
In managed care they’re trying to give back the upside they’ve made on the pandemic in the form of premium relief for customers — and they’re trying to contain that to this year, so if they look at 2021 it can be as normal as possible. They’re thinking about what the vaccine is going to look like, what therapies are going to look like. They’re trying to position their companies to get back to normal dynamics, with the senior population being a driver of growth. These guys are part of the answer to the problems of rising medical costs.
For the providers side, we have some areas like nursing home care that have really been impacted. All the bad publicity has made people averse to going into nursing homes, and there’s a question: Will it recover? The flip side is it’s really helped home health, because people are looking more at how we can provide some of the care we’ve provided institutionally at home. There are some sectors that face long-term challenges and some that face long-term opportunities.
如果客户需要了解您的覆盖范围的一件事，那将是什么？
At the end of the day, having lived through a bunch of these external shocks, it’s always best to focus on the high-quality names and assume a reversion. Extremes seldom happen; the worst-case scenarios don’t persist for very long. This is a very resilient sector that has a lot of secular growth to it.