GMO Has a Plan to Profit From a Growth Stock Bubble

由Jeremy Grantham公司共同创立的投资公司开始运行长期策略，该策略旨在从公司看到股票市场的增长泡沫的爆破中获利。

GMO股权脱位策略首先在10月下旬到全公司的液体替代品和多资产投资组合，Ben Inker，Gmo的资产配置负责人，告诉亚博赞助欧冠在电话采访中。在观察股票过度猜测之后，该公司竞选策略作为市场咆哮回来从其Covid-19引起的3月陷入困境。

“在春天，我们开始看到”愚蠢“，”墨水师。“如果你没有准备好短暂的东西，所谓的被高估了，你可以避免很多痛苦 - 但这不会让你赚钱。”

GMO的新战略 - 这是较长的股票和那些较短的股票expensive根据Inker的说法，全球 - 有可能产生累积净返还率约为80％左右。这与来自GMO美国的收益相似。积极的长/短策略，即资产经理从2000年技术，媒体和电信股的2000年泡沫的爆发中获利。

“我们看到我们看到的非常相似的蔓延，”墨水仪说了生长和价值股票之间的估值差距。“2000年，购买价值股票是一个完全体面的想法，”他补充说，“但购买价值库存和缩短增长股表现得更好。”

Value stocks have underperformed over the past decade, including a historic崩溃this year. The Russell 1000 Value Index lagged the Russell 1000 Growth Index by more than 40 percentage points during the 12 months through September — the measure’s largest underperformance ever over such a period, according to Inker.

In their enthusiasm for growth stocks, Inker said that investors have at times appeared to give little thought to what they’re buying. That market behavior, which he terms “the stupid,” can signal a bubble.

转基因长期以来一直是一个市场泡沫的学生. The Boston-based firm, co-founded by Grantham more than four decades ago, also profited during the 2008 global financial crisis.

“这是质量与垃圾，”召回了1992年加入了GMO的墨水师。“我们认为低品质的公司在2000年代中期的疯狂水平真的得到了疯狂的水平。”根据Inker的说法，GMO战术机会策略持有长期高质量的股票和较低的低质量股票，从2007年中期到2009年2月的回报率为69％。

Gmo于2019年10月开始讨论，当时推出另一个泡沫相关策略的时候是正确的，因为估值看起来“漂亮极端”，他告诉他II. But drawing on insights his team has gathered from Grantham over the years, Inker said that stock market valuations being stretched beyond historical averages isn’t enough to constitute a bubble.

“还有必要看到深度投机多余的证据，”墨迹说，他说他已经观察到2020年的躁狂类型。

在他看来，普通投资者通过今年开设更多个人经纪账户，向股票市场增加了燃料。但他也被短期呼叫期权活动跳跃了。

Investors buying a three-year call option on Tesla may believe a lot of information may surface in that time that will cause people to recognize that the electric car maker is worth much more than it’s valued now, he said. By contrast, “there is no plausible information that comes out on a three-to-five-day period,” said Inker. “It is pure speculation.”

Inker拒绝命名GMO在GMO股权错位战略下投注的公司。他说，短缺是困难和“可怕的”，因为损失的潜力是无限的。

[II深潜：“我见过的最长无利可图的短片。”]

Short sellers, for example, have racked up massive losses from bets against Elon Musk’s Tesla, which has skyrocketed despite their belief that its stock price has become detached from fundamentals.

Inker说，投资者已经打桩为“Go-Go-Go-Go-Go名称”。他指出，投资者还驾驶了尼古拉公司的股份。在卖空的Hindenburg Research之前allegations电动车初创公司建立在欺诈上，送到9月份的股票价格翻滚。Nikola从“Spacs的爆炸”中受益，说墨水师，通过其合并公开专用收购公司并迅速飙升的过去et value of Ford Motor Co.

尼古拉尽管是“收入前制造公司”，但Inker表示，尼古拉仍然攀升至高的市场价值。“这是一个非常奇怪的事情。”

While the GMO Equity Dislocation Strategy’s “underlying crucial ingredient is the value model,” Inker said the firm is trying to diversify its risks across regions globally, as well as sectors and style and size factors.

“我们正在汇集一个多元化的投资组合，没有巨大的部门或因子赌注，”墨迹说。“如果你只是让自己说，”好吧，我只想缩短所有的“增长”公司和漫长的所有'价值的公司，你会充满巨大的技术赌注。“

GMO’s portfolio is net short information technology by six points, as opposed to, say, 30 points, according to Inker. While the group of tech-related companies known as FAANGM — or Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google parent Alphabet, and Microsoft — looks somewhat more expensive than the average U.S. stock, their overvaluation is not particularly extreme, according to GMO.

The investment firm plans to provide details on its equity dislocation strategy in a季刊对于预计将于周二早上发布的客户。

For the new strategy, GMO had to rebuild companies’ income statements to understand their true profitability as well as their balance sheets, according to Inker. It was a multiyear project that this year became a priority as the firm wanted to wager against companies in the growth bubble.

Inker explained that income statements can be “really flawed” for fast-growing companies whose scale today is “very different” from five or 10 years ago. “It’s only when those growth rates get to be a really big deal that this gets screwed up,” he said.

在启动GMO股权脱位策略之前，该公司需要了解哪些公司可能只是“轻微”被高估，以区分公司GMO应该击败的公司 - 以及哪些公司不应该的情况。

他说：“我承担了许多疤痕”，从试图出现泡沫。仍然，Inker认为，在全球股市中的增长泡沫是“良好的，真正的”。

它已达到“抛物面阶段，也许它已经离开了一些月，但很难相信它有几年，”墨迹说。“这是一个只有十年的机会。”