Going Green May Hurt at First — But Fighting Climate Change Will Boost the S&P 500

Battling climate change will cost the U.S. as it moves toward a green economy — but the transition is crucial and will pay off for stocks and long-term growth, according to Bank of America Corp.

Climate change policies are mostly positive for the S&P 500 index, particularly in the long-run, Bank of America economists and equity and quantitative strategists said in a research report dated February 11. Corporate profits should rise as U.S. public and private sectors catch up to Europe in the fight against rising global temperatures, they predicted, benefiting the stock market.

向绿色经济转型将带来创新，同时解决financial stability concernslinked to extreme weather events — such as droughts, wildfire, hurricanes, and coastal flooding — caused by a warming planet, according to the report. And while climate policies may weaken near-term growth, Bank of America expects the policies will ultimately lead to “significant positive” developments.

世行的经济学家和策略师表示：“通过税收和监管大幅收紧碳排放政策可能会给经济带来成本。”。“但它也可能伴随着对绿色基础设施的更大投资而来，这是一个净利好，所有其他方面都是平等的。”

President Joe Biden is calling for a $2 trillion infrastructure bill to modernize and repair the U.S. transportation system, with a focus on clean and renewable energy to fight climate change, according to the report. The industrials and materials sectors are poised to benefit the most from an infrastructure bill, Bank of America said, along with the stocks of small U.S. companies whose sales are highly correlated to capital expenditure cycles — particularly “picks and shovels” capex growth.

“不温不火的经济遏制了‘挑挑拣拣拣’的资本支出，”世行的经济学家和策略师说。“从纯技术资本支出转向更传统的资本支出，可能标志着市场领导地位的重大变化。”

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惠誉评级（Fitch Ratings）周五发布的一份报告称，美国在解决与气候相关事件相关的脆弱性方面“在发达市场政府中明显落后”。

But “under the new administration, U.S. policy trajectory may more closely follow that of global regulatory leaders in this area, such as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank,” Fitch said. “Treasury Secretary appointee and long-time climate policy advocate, Janet Yellen, will likely raise the profile of climate risk among both financial regulators and the general public in her role as chair of the Financial Stability Oversight Council.”

Bank of America’s research found that growth in U.S. gross domestic product is bound to fall without efforts to combat climate change. The bank’s economists and strategists wrote in their report that “climate change should be thought of as an ‘exogenous’ shock to the economy, creating disruptions to the productive side of the economy (supply side shock) and to consumption through wealth shocks (demand side shock).”

They said a one degree increase in the daily average temperature above 15 degrees Celsius (59 degrees Fahrenheit) reduces productivity by 1.7 percent. The current path of rising temperatures may slash global GDP by as much as 25 percent by 2100, according to Bank of America’s research, which cited work done by consultants at the Group of Thirty.

“Extreme heat and adverse weather events can reduce labor supply due to difficult working conditions,” Bank of America said. “The research clearly shows that climate change is a hindrance to potential growth.”

Meanwhile, the Biden administration is aiming for net zero carbon emissions by 2050, according to the Bank of America report. “The immediate policies will focus on discouraging ‘bad’ behavior through measures such as tougher environmental regulations, higher fuel standards, and limited expansion of ‘dirty’ energy,” the bank said.

惠誉表示，虽然气候相关事件尚未导致美国银行业“实质性损失”，但“更多与极端天气相关的物理风险，以及未来政策决策带来的不确定过渡风险，可能会对突然的重新定价事件构成复杂风险和脆弱性。”

惠誉称，国会民主党人可能会试图重启《气候变化金融风险法案》，要求美联储为其银行压力测试设定气候变化风险情景。报告称，美国政策的转变可能导致全球在气候风险资本要求方面展开合作。

“U.S. financial regulators will expand early-stage efforts to incorporate climate change into macroprudential regulation, given the increased prioritization and stated goals of the new administration,” said Fitch.