由Gregor Spilker，CME组
乍看上去
- 美元，零利率和减少需求削弱可能会导致一个世纪的第四个超级循环
- Governments and private companies are increasingly pledging carbon reduction measures, heightening demand for certain metals
商品超级周期是十年长期，商品贸易高于其长期价格趋势。一些市场分析师正在看到迹象表明，现在开始新的超级周期，指出弱化美元和支持的中央银行和对基础设施支出的财政刺激以及可再生能源。
关于最后的超级契约是什么？
最后一级的超级赛可以总结一句话：Bric。巴西，俄罗斯，印度和中国2000年代表了26亿人，占世界人口的40％。这一想法是，金砖金子国家是一条快速产业化的道路，这将需要前所未有的原材料，食品和能源商品。循环持续超过10年，从千年开始，持续进入2010年代。商品繁荣开始显示2008年和2011年巨大的金融危机和随后的欧元危机巨头市场时放缓的迹象。当中国经济在2015年冷却时，它终于停止了。
现在对超级循环说话的是什么？
The last supercycle was supported by a steadily eroding U.S. dollar. The currency had been on a depreciating path since the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2001. It touched record low levels just as oil prices hit all-time highs in the summer of 2008. Since then, the U.S. dollar had been appreciating until the onset of Covid-19 in March 2020.
Why is it now weakening? The Federal Reserve has joined other central banks in the zero-interest rate policy (“ZIRP”) club as it has pulled all its levers to support the U.S. economy. Mechanically, a weak dollar often feeds into higher commodity prices. Raw materials are almost always priced in U.S. dollars, so a producer often needs to adjust prices upwards to offset the higher production costs in local currency. And on the demand side, a lower U.S. dollar means that, all else equal, commodities have become cheaper for an importing nation, leading to higher demand.
Since the great financial crisis, inflation has been most notable by its absence. This is despite many warnings that quantitative easing and zero-interest rates could lead to runaway prices. Central bankers have also signaled that higher-than-average inflation won’t necessarily result in an immediate rise in rates.
The idea of a supercycle is further supported by pent-up demand that could be unleashed once economies reopen. And many believe that governments won’t embrace the same austerity policies that they applied after the great financial crisis. Government spending is one key pillar supporting the supercycle hypothesis.
In the European Union, the fiscal stimulus package of 1.8 trillion Euros comes with a shade of green, with30% dedicated to fighting climate change.在美国,Biden administration is preparing a potential $3 trillion bill aimed at infrastructure projects and climate change.
The private sector is following suit, with car manufacturers in America and Europe promising to stop building vehicles with internal combustion engines by 2030 or 2035. It is likely that further commitments will be made in the months leading up to COP26, The United Nations’ annual Climate Change Conference. The event will be held in Glasgow, Scotland in November. Facing this increased demand, some bulls believe that supply may not be able to keep pace.
最多的商品最常用吗？
一个全新的金属市场，如cobalt, lithium, or nickel sulfate used in high-performance batteries is emerging to support the transition to electric vehicles (EVs).
EV革命适用于聚焦的材料，但也适用于传统金属产品：铝青睐以较低的重量辆，银广泛应用于光伏装置。当然，在未来几年内，电气化可以为铜提供更高的需求。
As for oil markets, companies ranging from super majors to nimble shale producers have had to slash their exploration budgets, meaning that there are less new projects being developed. On the other hand, OPEC members have spare capacity to respond to stronger demand. Beyond oil, natural gas is a commodity that can act as a bridge fuel between coal and renewable energy. As coal plants are progressively taken off the grid in the U.S. and Europe, natural gas-powered generation could capture a larger share of the generation mix.
How Does This Cycle Compare to the Last One?
It could be said that of the four BRIC nations, only China was able to match investors’ high expectations from the last supercycle. From 2000 to 2020, the country increased its share of world GDP from 3.6% to 16.3%, according to World Bank. In the past decade, China has now carefully moved from an investment-driven economy to a consumption-driven model. 2020 commodity bulls believe that strong demand will not come only from emerging markets, but also from changes in Western economies.
The geopolitical backdrop to this cycle is also very different. At the start of the millennium, China had just joined the WTO, integrating the country into the world economy and further fueling its demand for commodities. Twenty years later, the U.S., China and other economies are navigating a less benign environment, where tariffs and quotas are used much more willingly.
Finally, it is also worth thinking about the implications of electrification and decarbonization at large scale – something that was not top of mind 20 years ago. If we are truly transitioning to an economy碳强度较低, this could, over the long-term, structurally reduce demand for fossil fuels. On the flip side, it would be dangerous to discount demand from emerging markets – Africa, Southeast Asia – where population growth alone could result in increasing appetite for oil.
超级循环......还是周期性的上升？
真正的商品超级绳不会经常出现。返回一世纪，只确定了三个或四个真正的超级单。每个人都与经济发展的变革期间有关：美国（1910年）的快速工业化，德国和日本在第二次世界大战（20世纪50年代）之后的德国和日本的产业化，当然，早期金砖国家的增长2000年代。上面提到的许多点支持立即开始的新周期的想法，但仍然太早了。