对于发明轮子和托马斯爱迪生的人表示歉意，今天正在更快地剪辑，而不是在人类历史上的任何其他时间发生。在我们的眼睛之前，日常生活是在可以处理信息的前所未有的速度之前改变，似乎苍蝇的电子商务，药物治疗中的突破等等。所有这些都也为投资者创造了机会 - 这么多，因此雅培勋爵的股权投资专业人士专业人士专门用于投资创新的策略。该团队认为，创新应被视为自己的资产课程，并且在资产拨款中可能需要被视为新核心的高创新公司。投资者的好消息是，许多创新领域只划伤了市场渗透的表面。
II recently spoke with four members of the innovation equities collaboration at Lord Abbett about the disruptive innovation that is generating revenue and earnings growth many multiples higher than that of the overall equity market – and what it all means for investors. Participating in the conversation were:
- Brian Foerster, Equity Investment Strategist
- Ben Ebel, Portfolio Manager
- Samantha Shevins, Research Analyst
- Matthew DeCicco, Partner & Director of Equities
讨论开始符合为什么该团队认为创新可以在机构组合中发挥宝贵的作用，并涵盖了团队的投资过程 - 包括他们如何识别机会。
当你说创新是它自己的资产课程时，投资者应该如何实际上？他们的投资组合是什么意思？
Brian Foerster：毫不夸张的说。在过去的20年中，技术创新公司的股票从投机投资的阴影中出现到广阔的日光中，代表全球经济最大的地区。然而，他们仍然非常低估了。我们认为传统的增长基准并没有为投资者提供对经济关键领域的最佳风险。这种断开连接的一个原因是传统的生长/价值框架始终由一个关键指标驱动：价格 - 预订廉价。估值度量通常是构建风格指标的最大重量。虽然这种方法从未完美，但是在40年前在生产的生产经济中足够了，其中大多数公司的资产是物理植物，财产和设备。然而，今天绝大多数公司资产都是无形的，并没有反映在账面价值中。这可能是为什么价值作为风格的一个原因如此挣扎。一些已经变得脆弱的价值股票具有很多策略债务，但基于他们的价格到估价，表面看起来很便宜。 They have a lot of physical capital that was once a great competitive advantage, but now in many cases has become a liability. Think about brick-and-mortar retail. Is it better to have a store in every neighborhood around the world, or to have an e-commerce presence that anyone can use and requires much less overhead? Innovation forced that change.
它听起来像投资者需要通过全新的镜头看股票。
Foerster：一种framework of innovation, vulnerability, and durability is a better way to think about the global economy, and therefore equities. Within that framework, innovative companies that are asset light and invest heavily in R&D stand out when there is something about their product or service that is disruptive to many other industries or companies. That disruption drives vulnerability.
Companies that are poorly positioned to the threat of innovation, and don’t quickly respond, are headed for a long, secular decline – value traps that appear cheap, but even if they’re trading at book value could still be very expensive if they’re headed for zero. We’re advocating to get out of those names. When you look under the hood of your value manager, make sure that you’re owning durability rather than vulnerability. We think institutional allocations to innovation should be sizable, and almost equal in weight to that concept of durability. Whether that’s scaled to underlying volatility is based on investor needs, but we’re saying we could be seeing a more Darwinian decade ahead with more distinct winners and losers. Having that larger exposure to innovation balanced with traditional value exposure makes sense.
重点是创新增加了对投资组合的多样化吗？
Foerster：是的。对于初学者来说，您拥有造成价值观的公司，这是如此多的痛苦和创造中断和流离失所风险。In the type of strategies that we run – which have exposure to innovation, and a focus on identifying operation and price momentum – it’s not a matter of finding innovation, putting your feet on the desk and saying, “Let it run for 10 years.” Our experience has been that you need to first find great innovators, but it is also just as important to identify those with operating momentum. That also means it is critical to sell the stocks of companies facing new competitive threats or those with slowing growth rates. We use both operating momentum at the company level and price momentum of the underlying stock to find opportunities that we think represent justified momentum.
动量因子历史上与价值因子非常呈负相关。因此，有效地采用势头的创新投资组合可以是价值策略的强大多样化。
Would you say your view of innovation is a critique of value?
Foerster：不，但它确实需要投资者以不同的方式看待价值。它不仅仅寻求绝对廉价或使用一个公式标准来销量识别价值库存 - 这是一个值得在70年以上的价值。相反，它是关于寻找自由现金流和股息增长作为现有或未来质量的潜在信号，并确定这些公司是否具有强大的竞争性护城河。价值是不会消失的东西，但它确实需要恢复到更接近它的原始Graham-Dodd概念的东西 - 并适应创新造成的创新。
本ebel：We have very successful value strategies at Lord Abbett, and they run deep in our roots as a firm. We are far from anti-value. It’s our observation, however, that the value manager of the next decade is going to do an increasingly good job of making the distinction between companies that are cheap and durable, and those that are experiencing vulnerability because of how rapidly innovation is impacting not just the sectors that we invest in, but also the sectors that our value colleagues invest in.
In an age of rapid innovation driven by technology, everyone wants to invest in the next big thing before everyone else knows it’s the next big thing. How do you keep up with everything that’s going on in innovation so that – at least some of the time – you can be a step ahead from an allocation perspective?
ebel：这是一个讨论我们拥有创新公司的哲学的核心，这些公司已经实现了他们的潜力，并使其与市场实现这一潜力的实现，产生股价势头。我们将其视为Venn图 - 如果您可以获得股票中的所有三个事物，您正在构建一个可以推动盈利增长期望的名称组合，从而证明驱动优惠的优惠。
That it is very difficult, if not impossible, to predict the future is implied in the idea of using momentum as a leading indicator. We are not trying to predict the future. We’re trying to use operating momentum and price momentum to demonstrate the potential for companies to have sustainable success and opportunity. You want a healthy balance of being able to get something that the wisdom of the crowd recognizes is going well, but not quite how well.
Foerster：We’re investing at the center of the Venn diagram Ben described, looking for companies that are very innovative and operating at a high level, which is confirmed by price momentum. That will lead us to either industries or trends. For example, we’ll find a number of companies that meet our criteria in cloud computing or biotechnology, and we’ll end up with a large weight in those industries or megatrends. Looking at opportunities one stock at a time allows us to identify trends and size them into the portfolio at the right time.
Sticking with that thought of keeping up with the opportunities as they emerge, are some opportunities less obvious than others?
萨曼莎肖世格：我nnovation in the tech sphere is tangible to nearly everyone because the products and services are in their homes, cars, and smartphones every day. Innovation is less apparent in industries such as biotech, to borrow an example from what Brian was just talking about. Unless you’re embedded in the healthcare system, you’re probably unaware of how new tools and analytical methods have greatly reduced drug development time.
SARS-COV-2病毒首先在2019年底在媒体中描述，其基因组在2020年1月10日上序。在该日期的几周内，制药公司开始设计新药和对病毒的疫苗。在大流行的一周年，我们的生活改变了我们的所有生命，我们在美国批准了三种疫苗，公司已经在实验室里工作，用于涵盖变体的下一代疫苗。由于基因组测序，这一切都是可能的。占据了10亿美元来实现第一人体基因组序列。今天，一个人的基因组可以在几天内测序，而且它的成本低于1000美元。结合新的分析方法，我们现在对理解疾病的原因以及如何创建毒品来瞄准它们的巨大见解。
Matthew DeCicco:人类基因组计划是一个incredible success and was completed in 2003, so a lot of the tools that Samantha referenced have evolved in the time since then. Another way of looking at it is that the return on research and development has improved. We’ve been invested in this sector for the better part of the last decade, so the momentum was apparent to us well before COVID-19 triggered the pandemic.
一种s you mentioned, the pandemic really put biotech innovation on display. What are some other reasons institutional investors should be in biotech?
谢芬：We believe health care is in the early stages of a multi-decade cycle of innovation. What really attracts us to biotech is the asymmetric return profile that a lot of these companies offer in terms of alpha generation –ifyou can correctly identify the companies developing important and valuable drugs that are going to be successful in clinical trials, gain regulatory approval, and be commercially successful.
There are many aspects you have to feel comfortable about to risk adjust the odds of success. We have a rigorous process for identifying companies that are creating first-in-class or best-in-class drugs that might offer meaningful benefits to patients. We’re not looking for the tenth drug in a category that’s already commoditized. We prefer drugs that are developed for diseases where the underlying biology is elucidated or at least generally well understood, as that tends to increase the odds of success in clinical trials for those drugs. And, we want to see a clear and efficient pathway to FDA approval.
作为我们流程的一部分，我们也看不仅是如何度过的研发美元，而且还要看到整个发展都在有能力的手中。我们更倾向于经验丰富的管理团队，这些管理团队可以在设计临床试验中进行成功记录，以导航FDA监管过程。成功的轨道记录进一步增强了在终点线上制作的药物的几率。
How do you apply a similar rigor in the tech sector?
ebel：我记得参观最大的软件公司之一mpanies in the world back in the early 2000s, and I was struck at how every engineer had four computers in their office. I asked the CFO about the ability to constrain some of the resources, and he just shrugged and said, “Oh, you know, when an engineer wants something, the CEO okays it.” There clearly wasn’t a process for allocating budget dollars in a way to fund what management deemed the best projects so that they could achieve the kind of depth that results in the revenue rewards of R&D. The point is that having an allocation process is very important. I like to think about things from the perspective of the CFO of each of these companies, making the same sort of R&D and marketing allocation decisions they would. If you’re too early on an idea you’re not optimizing that allocation, and obviously you don’t want to be too late. Having a process to capture the balance for when the timing is right is really important. Great stocks come from credible, successful management teams, and when that comes together and visible in performance and price momentum, we have what we seek.
DeCicco:The first part of the Venn diagram we’ve mentioned is a four-way qualitative assessment of a company’s potential – the model, the management, the industry conditions, and the competitive advantage. The qualitative assessment of a management team is based on experience and interactions we have with C-suite individuals over the course of many years. In a typical year, our team has at least 500 meetings with management teams at companies we’re invested in or considering investing in.
在最近的展示中，您提到了我们参加的每个人都提到了电子商务和云计算真正只是在渗透方面划伤了表面，在20％的情况下。这是令人难以置信的是那里仍有这么多机会。在生物技术之外，你在哪里看到新的机会？
DeCicco:统计数据是一个醒目者，特别是关于电子商务 - 即使您考虑到2020年的电子商务渗透率有多次。外带的是，很多可投资的创新趋势仍处于采用的早期阶段。另一个例子是流电视。45岁以下的大约30％的电视观看现在通过流媒体完成，但只有8％的电视广告预算转向流。基于其作为市场的纳粹花源，在媒体电视广告周围的生态系统中存在巨大的增长潜力。
即使在云计算中，仍有空间也会成长？看起来我们永远谈论这一点。
DeCicco:Even though “the cloud” is a household phrase now, the moving of workflows to the cloud is still very early in terms of penetration. That’s another trend that has many more years to play out. With that in mind, however, the time it’s taking for new tech adoption curves to occur is collapsing. For example, televisions or automobiles took 30 years to get to 30% household penetration in the U.S. The internet and mobile phones both got to that 30% level in less than 10 years. New markets are evolving rapidly, and their market penetration is happening faster than has historically been the case.
尽管如此，我们还在谈论一个时间的地平线，更复杂成为投资者的主要好处，正确吗？
DeCicco:When you can identify companies or trends that can grow for 40% for a long period of time you get the benefit of compounding – and the power of compounding over 10 years is a meaningful value capture for investors. For example, $1 dollar compounded at 40% for 10 years is worth $28, whereas $1 compounded 10% for the same length of time is worth $2.50.
ebel：如果您查看人们在五年前投注的创新公司，那么基本上留下了未批准的是他们在生态系统中创造了其他地方的瓶颈。没有赞赏地创造了基础设施 - 既有足迹以及深度 - 而且云软件公司可以剥离这一点，并可能使其增长从15％到30％或40％。
Today, companies that adopted that cloud software are seeing the benefits. For example, in the current environment, an athletic apparel retailer can get more productivity out of its online store or call center agents working from home rather than in a central place – and still be able to keep comps at a very high level. That, in turn, creates further bottlenecks somewhere within the ecosystem, and companies that spent R&D dollars on products and building channels via sales and marketing are able to see a return off of that.
Earlier you mentioned the qualitative assessment you make of a company’s potential – the Venn diagram. How does your investment process proceed from that point?
DeCicco:第二步是基本分析，非常具体，专为评估创新，高增长公司来识别运营势头。我们希望看到通过对公司的亲属和绝对价格势头的定量评估确认。我们认为每个部分我们的进程都会向我们的退货增加尾风，而我们的八人团队则增强了该过程。该团队的两名成员有30多年的投资经验，五个有20多个。这是一个非常经验的群体，这真的以我们导航的方式显示了2020年。
你覆盖的股票范围是什么样的？
DeCicco:我们涵盖了从Micro到Mega的创新股，从10亿美元的公司到2万亿美元的公司。这使我们对整个创新生态系统的竞争风景提供了独特的视角。这是可能的，部分是因为我们的平台。我们的团队很敏捷，仅重点关注识别和投资创新公司，但我们受益于成为一个更大的组织的一部分。例如，我们有一个巨大的固定收入特许经营权，例如，为我们提供了很多经济洞察力。我们可以访问风险管理工具和Quanto工具，如其他示例 - 我们需要成功的所有工具，结合像精品一样运行的能力。
It all begs the question: Why? Why do you do everything you’ve described when any one aspect of your process could be a successful equity strategy on its own?
Foerster：The short answer is that you need to manage risk to keep clients invested. Just trying to identify the long-term winners in innovation is difficult given the intense competition in these industries. As Ben said, we are not trying to predict the future. And even the big long-term winners can sometimes experience short-term drawdowns – big ones. Think of Amazon back in 2000–2002, it went down 95% before resuming its incredible run. Netflix fell nearly 80% in 2012, Tesla has fallen 40% or more multiple times. They all proved to be big winners over the long run, but those types of drawdowns are difficult to stomach while they are happening and can cause clients to sell at the worst possible time.
然后你自己看势头。它已被证明是长期历史上最强大和最表现最佳的因素之一。但它最为人知的是什么？势头崩溃。盲目购买的价格势头没有基础理由也是近期风险的方法。我们认为动力是强大的，在捕获反应的偏见方面是强大的，并且购买力量 - 作为Biotech描述的马特 - 是回报的伟大来源。只需购买运营实力，没有价格势头可以让你告诉客户的经理，“我没有错，我很早。”与此同时，船舶默示和表现不佳，直到市场最终开始认识到基本力量 - 或者没有。我们认为，通过运营和价格势头集中界定了创新，是一种利用所有三个的方式，同时希望限制个人风险曝光。
最后，最重要的是，我们相信我们一直在谈论的一切潜在技术继续被低估。技术进步和采用率的增长率通常是指数级，人类倾向于更加线性地思考。我们在过去20年中看到了很多预测，证明是过于保守和错误的。我们的过程是相当独一无二的，因为我们在这个空间中的活力上重点关注了这么多，而不仅仅是静态预测。
Learn more about making innovation a key part of your investment strategy.
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