一切都很好地股息很好

股息可以提供建立回报的重要起点，但股权分析师通常会给他们短暂的恐惧或将它们视为事后的经文。当用作起点而不是被视为副产品时，可以分析股息进行公司性能的转折点。

Thomas Matheson是IHS Markit股权司的一名执行董事，在那里他负责临时研究团队的股息，近40名全球股权分析师，这些分析师致辞股息预测。进行自下而上的公司财务报表分析，团队预测股息的金额和日期，因为分配变化的时期对金额同样重要。在其预测的宇宙中，该团队还提供了评论和预测票据，因此客户可以获得更多颜色，是否他们是否同意预测，无论是他们想要更多的数据，以及他们是否想要联系到团队 - Matheson鼓励的东西。

ii最近与Matheson发言，其团队对全球28,000多个股票，ADR和ETF的股息金额和日期估计进行了独立研究。

公司支付股息的能力是什么告诉投资者在与坚实的基本上说话之外？

Thomas Matheson:They do demonstrate strong fundamentals, but there’s also a human aspect to a board’s propensity to pay dividends, and those two angles make them difficult to predict. Typically, it’s seen as a good indicator of future prospects if the board is willing to increase its dividend. It shows confidence and provides transparent evidence that the board is serious about its capital allocation discipline. There is plenty of research that supports the idea that over time firms that pay dividends tend to outperform the general market.

In fact, dividends are such a transparent indicator of strong governance that it’s interesting to consider how they might be incorporated into ESG data and evaluation. The fact that a company consistently pays dividends over time indicates strong governance and could perhaps be tied in with some traditional ESG indicators to create a composite score that investors could consider. We are looking closely at how to do that.

您和您的团队对股息具有乐观的展望。你是什​​么基础的？

Matheson：We feel the global economic recovery is underway. We arrive at our estimate by aggregating our bottom-up analysis for the stocks that we forecast, and then apply that across markets globally. The growth we’re anticipating this year is a function of the changes across regions. In fact, the pandemic has been an accelerant in the polarization of dividends across different regions. For example, strong upward trends that had been going on for a number of years in U.S. dividends managed to maintain fairly flat last year. In Europe, dividends have been struggling for some time, and last year they absolutely crashed, with over half of European firms cutting payments. And Asia performed much stronger, especially mainland China which saw its economic recovery come in sooner – and we’re expecting further growth in mainland China this year.

今年的部门级别怎么样？

Matheson：我们预计银行和保险部门相对于去年的大幅增长。这两者都特别难以击中大流行监管机构，强迫公司不支付股息。在该规则简化中，我们看到了一个反弹 - 尽管我们不希望这两个部门的股息达到2019年的水平。

Was that regulatory pressure felt equally by banks and insurers around the world?

Matheson：监管答复在欧洲最严重，而美国银行则没有相同的压力。在亚洲，反应混合了。例如，澳大利亚沿着欧洲模型的线条遵循了一些东西。总体而言，在市场上有严重的政治和监管答复银行和保险公司倾向于努力被努力受到努力，因为需要保存资本，所以可以借出饲料恢复。

大流行在依赖于内部股息估计的资产经理上采取的一些意外风险吗？

Matheson：去年我们看到股息的变化最有趣的是，大股息变化并非仅仅是公司绩效的副产品。相反，正如我刚才所提到的那样，外源性因素和政治和监管压力正在造成股息。在欧洲，大约一半的公司削减了股息。在全球范围内，我们在去年的股息支付中削减了3500亿美元 - 非常大的数字。在这样的场景中，由于非基本原因被削减了付款，甚至更加难以跟踪更改。

In 2020, dividends took the role of a leading indicator versus that of a of lagging indicator, which was another interesting development. Dividends were being cut before earnings results were coming in. Firms were taking a proactive attitude to conserving capital, which mirrored government response to the pandemic. The governments that performed the best took assertive action straightaway, and that had the effect of quelling the pandemic. Likewise, companies that were proactive and made cuts were viewed as making strong decisions. We were seeing differences even within Europe – insurers in Germany versus the UK versus Switzerland all behaving differently because of their own market regulators. Social distancing measures meant AGMs were cancelled and dividends couldn’t be paid. Like many other things, our forecasting framework needed to adapt and our analysts added regulatory reports and corporate bylaws to their investigations. If you don’t have the resources and ability to zoom in on dividends, it’s very easy to miss things or perhaps make assumptions and miscalculate on income projections. In a period of dramatic volatility having an independent benchmark to act as a verification becomes even more crucial. If you’re carrying dividend risk, having the most accurate forecast is essential to your strategy.

You’re rolling out some enhancements that will greatly improve the user experience for asset managers on your platform. Tell us about those.

Matheson：增强功能侧重于投资组合部分，特别是用户输入自己的投资组合和跟踪更改的能力。当用户在近实时接收我们的市场领先数据时，更新非常快速且易于消耗 - 正如如此 - 但现在他们可以自定义他们的投资组合中的数据流，并在风险的位置获得洞察力在单一库存，索引或投资组合水平。

增强功能还突出显示可视化，特别是在我们的置信区内提供了一种简单的方法，可以更深入地了解我们认为我们预测的准确性。一些股息非常稳定，不太可能改变，而其他股息则非常挥发或难以预测。我们有一个评分系统，允许用户识别这种股息风险的位置，他们可以浏览这个并屏蔽他们的投资组合，以了解他们可以在特定时期内部期望的股息，以及股息风险将是什么。我们还提供额外风险的临时情景分析，并正在推出专有的股息分数，这计算了特定公司的股息的概率。

您早些时候提到了实时数据流。用户看到数据更新的频率如何？

Matheson：我们有一个分析师团队全天制作更新，并在一两分钟内流入门户网站。这很快。有些用户每小时或两个用户可以检查更新。欧洲的市场开放是每天的关键时刻，因为股票衍生物交易者正试图在市场开放之前平衡他们的书籍。如果在伦敦凌晨7点宣布，我们努力获得数据，分析它，请在必要时更新我们的预报，并尽快推出客户。我们需要爆炸，我们在这种及时性地骄傲。

是我们一直在讨论用于资产管理人员的解决方案的一部分吗？

Matheson：是的。我们的数据可通过多种不同的方法获得。我们最大的用户在API和平面文件中占据，也使用Web门户来检查更新。随着网站网站上的股息预测，我们还提供ETF和索引基准服务。例如，这意味着，当我刚才提到要股息数据和索引和ETF成分数据时，它可以通过一个平台提供的股权衍生产品。我们拥有增强的自定义篮子功能，用户也可以插入即可。此外，我们还通过Thinksfolio提供了可用的股息预测数据，即IHS Markit为买边前台的投资组合管理系统，以及IHS Markit的数据湖，其中包括多个行业的超过1,500多个数据集。

当您谈论内部股息预测时，您提到您的许多资产经理客户都拥有内部团队，并使用IHS Markit的功能和工具。他们在混合中拥有你的团队来获得什么？

Matheson：我们预测历史超过10年，这在行业中是独一无二的。这是一个巨大的好处，越来越多的Quant-Like的买方公司正在寻找如何使用股息数据作为投资信号。他们需要历史数据来测试他们的策略。

我们也信任许多衍生品的终结型号，并验证了我们所做的数据和分析的质量。此外，我们与索引提供商合作，查看Smart Beta策略以及如何使用股息预测来增强其产品。我们真的在精湛的客户服务上自豪。我们已经与这些公司一起工作了很长时间，我们已经了解了他们所需要的，并且我们可以主动回应它们。我们通过关于我们所知的区域更新和研究说明，我们与他们联系到他们对他们感兴趣的，他们可以访问我们的团队。For example, if we were asked about a particular forecast by a customer and then we change it, the analyst making the update will reach out to that customer and let them know – so, it’s not an anonymous client services team, it’s the person making the forecast speaking to the client.

我也应该提到，随着来自基本观点的股息，我们也有选项市场的产出，所以我们可以看出隐含的股息并结婚的选项输出。此外，我们利用我们的证券财务团队的数据来看看正在短缺的股票，以及我们对全球经济洞察力的采购经理人指数（PMI）数据。结合所有这些不同的输入允许我们看到大图片，并且随着我们扩展模型，它允许我们的客户占据最广泛或最佳的利基视图。

On that quant angle you mentioned, has that changed the makeup of your team at all?

Matheson：As we’ve observed customers on the buy-side looking to extract investment signals we’ve expanded our team to include data scientists and look at how dividends can impact share prices. We’ve used our forecast history to back-test dividend forecast portfolios, and observed they typically exhibit higher returns with lower volatility than relying on trailing dividend data. We’ve also built an advanced analytics model to replicate our analysis and trusted methodology, enabling us to expand the universe that we forecast for – it’s the sort of beachhead from which we can launch more analytics and more interesting scores that we’ll make available via this portal in the years to come.

了解更多关于如何将dividends into a starting point for your investment strategies。

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