当Raincloud在投资组合经理办公室中断时，它可能会带来一种可以云市场表现的精神雾。
Unpleasant weather — like snow, rain, clouds, and wind — can have psychological and physiological impacts on institutional investors, resulting in slower processing of earnings news and an amplified “post-earnings announcement drift” among a firm’s top investment professionals, according to a study from Stony Brook University professor Danling Jiang, Troy University’s Dylan Norris, and George Mason University’s Lin Sun. The post-earnings announcement drift, known as the PEAD effect, refers to the tendency for a stock’s cumulative abnormal returns to drift for a long period of time following an earnings announcement.
作者认为，前面的研究表明，作者表示，令人不快的天气会引起悲观，焦虑，疲劳和难以集中的感觉。对于机构亚博赞助欧冠投资者来说，这些情绪可以延迟信息处理并导致更高的不确定性的价格折扣。研究人员发现，对盈利公告的价格反应变得更加“缓慢”，盈利公告溢价上涨。
“Our paper extends existing studies by showing that weather does not just affect individuals’ optimism, pessimism, and trading behavior, but also influences how investors, particularly institutional investors, process newly arrived public information and exert an impact on the speed and the degree of market pricing of announced news,” they wrote.
当投资者在天气下
与以往的天气和市场参与者的表现的关系不同，Sun告诉了亚博赞助欧冠她和其他作者检查了哪种类型s of investors are most impacted by the weather. The researchers identified the top ten institutional investors at each firm and located the weather stations within a 50-kilometer radius of the zip code of each investor’s headquarter location. Jiang, Norris, and Sun then examined the weather over a two-week period before an earnings announcement. When unpleasant weather arose in the area on the day of an earnings announcement, institutional investors were more likely to have delayed market responses, reflected as weaker immediate reactions and stronger post-earnings-announcement drifts.
“较弱的即时反应反映在价格上，异常回报，”太阳在电话里呼叫说II。“在邮政公告窗口中，上个月后60天，我们希望看到一个强大的群体漂移。”
孙表示，这些发现是特别有趣的，部分原因是一般假设，机构投资者更为“复杂”，因此应该不受外部偏见的影响。亚博赞助欧冠但数据证明了相反的。
“这一特殊的机构投资者实际上对市场进程产生了巨大的影亚博赞助欧冠响，”孙说。
把阻尼器放在交易上
公告前的令人不愉快的天气也被发现与较高的盈利公告溢价有关。研究人员表示，在公司报告收益之前，一个阴郁的日子与较低的交易量相关，云覆盖率增加到12％的异常交易量。
江，诺里斯和太阳将这些调查结果解释为天气引起的焦虑产品，这可以导致“不确定性厌恶”，这篇论文说。这种风险避免然后导致交易减少。
太阳表示，这种天气偏见很难控制，但投资者和公司仍然很重要，以确认其存在。
“当我有一个雨天的时候，心情不好，”孙说。“我的生产力水平显然低于阳光灿烂的日子。我觉得这种情绪驱动的影响很难到处。“