作者：Evan Peterson，CME集团
AT A GLANCE
- 布鲁·普特南讨论了在流感大流行时代，价格和商品供应突然变化的一些经验教训
- Anew resource for teachers and students addresses the challenges of sudden supply and demand shocks and what we’ve learned from the past year
Econ Essentials,a program created in partnership with Futures Fundamentals and Discovery Education, is designed to help high school students learn about core economic principles. Aiming to connect these concepts to current events, a new resource for teachers and students addresses the challenges of sudden supply and demand shocks and what we’ve learned from the past year.
当航空公司在2020年因COVID-19流感大流行而被迫限制国际航班时，航空业开始了一场大变革。大型航空公司不能再提供那么多的航班，对他们提供的航班的需求也枯竭了。2020年第三季度，美国国内平均机票价格降至245美元，这是至少1995年以来经通胀调整后的最低水平。尽管价格下降，但需求仍然严重低迷，导致飞机几乎空无一人。随着美国和其他经济体慢慢摆脱与流行病有关的限制，我们仍然可以看到许多商品和服务的供需迅速变化所带来的持续影响。
Anew learning tool created by Discovery Education in partnership with Futures Fundamentalsuses examples from the current environment to provide students a useful example of what happens when supply and demand changes suddenly and drastically. This resource is available for high school-level classrooms, and it comes at a moment of economic change we are not likely to see again for some time.
航空公司和任何行业一样，都能说明COVID-19时代的突然供需冲击，但受影响的绝不只有航空公司。Meat,lumber,industrial metalsand国际航运所有行业都受到我们在OpenMarkets上讨论过的COVID的极大影响。大流行开始时，芝加哥商品交易所集团首席经济学家布鲁普特南回答了问题从学生们那里了解他对COVID-19如何颠覆工业和我们日常生活的看法。我们再次与他联系，讨论过去一年的供需动态，以及我们可以从中吸取什么教训。下面是我们的对话。
许多行业已经被这场流行病永久性地改变了。你在哪里看到了供需的一些最大变化？
布鲁普特南：The pandemic accelerated a trend toward more flexible work arrangements for office staff. This has allowed people think about living outside city centers, moving to the suburbs or even more rural areas. This people movement has led to a boom in housing prices outside city centers.
Businesses also learned during the pandemic that virtual meetings could replace many in-person meetings. So, post pandemic, many companies are moving to a hybrid model of virtual meetings with fewer in-person meetings, and that means business travel will not return to pre-pandemic levels.
教育部门受到大流行病的严重影响，大量失业。在一个大流行后的世界里，许多教育机构将不会回到旧模式。即使学生回到教室，一些学习仍然是虚拟的，并不是所有以前的工人都会被重新雇用。
“被压抑的需求”是我们经常听到的一句关于大流行后经济的话。我们在哪里已经看到了需求的激增，我们是否看到了价格的上涨？
布鲁普特南：被压抑的需求最常用于指人们在大流行前消费的服务，然后在关闭期间被拒绝。随着经济的重新开放，人们对外出就餐、旅游、参加音乐会或体育活动等有着“被压抑的需求”。在流感大流行期间，消费者将支出从某些服务转移到其他服务上，如家庭用品、家庭装修、，预计在流感大流行后的反弹中，以前被拒绝的服务的支出将会激增。
Gasoline prices at the pump are another interesting example. When the shutdown hit in March-April 2020, airlines stopped flying, and people did not drive as much. Gas prices dropped. Now that travel is coming back, both on the road and in the air, gasoline prices have moved considerably higher.
需求减少了怎么办？例如，一年前，我们看到食品杂货店货架上的卫生纸和杀菌清洁剂短缺。
布鲁普特南：大流行突然停止了。基本商品出现了一定程度的“囤积”和“抢购”。随着供应量的调整，这一阶段在几个月后结束。流感大流行的反弹并不像一开始那样突然。反弹只会随着经济重新开放的步伐进行，这与疫苗的分发和Covid-19病例的减少有关。也就是说，向大流行后世界过渡的过程比大流行突然到来的过程要平稳得多。
As economists study the pandemic era in the years ahead, they are sure to find ways to better understand how everything played out. Is there a historical example that has similarly changed supply and demand dynamics so swiftly?
布鲁普特南：The best examples of how to analyze abrupt events are actually found in physics in the study of phase transitions. Think about water when it is heated and goes from a liquid to a gas. All the turbulence is at the boundary or the surface of the water as it comes to a boil. The most severe economic turbulence was in the first few months of the virus’ arrival.
这种快速传播的病毒造成了一种连锁反应的系统故障，导致部分经济立即关闭，这是一种创伤性的冲击。从创伤性休克中恢复过来是一个缓慢的过程，经历改变了这个过程。也就是说，经济不会恢复到大流行前的状态，而是在吸取教训的基础上找到新的动力。
供给和需求一直确定part by available technology. What is an example of an industry where technology enabled a smooth transition to the pandemic economy, and an example of an industry that struggled to adapt?
布鲁普特南：When the shutdown hit, technology allowed for a rapid shift to a higher percentage of online shopping relative to visiting brick and mortar stores. The online shopping pattern was already gaining traction before the pandemic, and COVID-19 accelerated the trend.
教育是一个努力适应大流行病的行业。在线学习或远程学习已经慢慢获得了一些吸引力，但是，突然之间，传统课堂上的教师不得不学习新的在线教学技能。学生们不得不适应在电脑前而不是在教室里的时间。虽然大多数办公室专业人士都能很好地适应虚拟会议和在家工作，但教育机构在很大程度上难以转向高科技的交付系统。