Don’t Ask Dan Zwirn About the Future

乐观主义者不应该向丹Zwirn询问市场领导的地方。

投资者描绘了“经济上暴力世界的一个潜在丑陋的画面”，“他在他26年的职业生涯中看到的最弱前景”。

But at least shareholders in his funds don’t have to worry, wrote Zwirn in his upcoming letter to investors, which addresses what he expects from years of loose monetary policy by central banks around the world coupled with massive government spending.

Even as markets have been going straight up since their dip in March 2020,Dan Zwirn, CEO and CIO of Arena Investors, has been getting to know promising companies in fintech, e-commerce, and electric vehicle infrastructure, among other sectors. He wanted Arena to be ready for opportunities when markets started going sideways by understanding these companies’ intellectual property and developing relationships with them.

“We have been building our arks while the sun has been shining, such that we can benefit from the “convexity” that a suddenly changing market environment could create,” he wrote in an upcoming investor letter. “The addressable market is titanic,” Zwirn added in an interview with亚博赞助欧冠。并不是那么长期逆势认为这些企业不会真正变革。他只是一个大信徒，即破坏性技术 - 思考铁路和电话 - 总是遵循一个磨损的道路，投资者沿途失去了很大。这些技术的承诺似乎似乎从投资者那里汲取更多资金，而不是实际保证。长期逆势责备责任在很多力量的脚下，包括利率上升。

“[中断科技公司]过错（几乎总是在易于赚钱的时期），资本相对于市场机会超薄（往往与内部人和相关方也超过了自己），有崩溃（通常被低迷带来了这包括收取利率的收紧），然后将最终整合到具有适当经济学（通常跨越数十年）的大多数公司，“他写信给投资者。

Arena toldIIthat the environment is now more volatile than ever, in part because of aggressive monetary and fiscal policies. Still, Zwirn declined to make any predictions about the markets, despite the week’s huge swings. “There are a whole lot of reasons why, whether it’s the structure of the alternative investment universe or the speed at which volatile news promulgates within social media,” he said.

Zwirn评论家的狭隘的扩散defined credit and private equity funds, which force managers to keep putting money to work even when a geography or sector is in bubble territory. As markets fall, these same managers can’t go after many of the opportunities that arise.

“We have flexibility. Any geography, any industry, public, private. You can set yourself up to be a beneficiary of that volatility, because you can do things that make sense if things stay the same or do even better if they get worse,” he said.

Zwirn, an avid financial history buff whose letter includes a detailed case study on railroads, said he’s also seeing opportunities in the fintech ecosystem, such as financing payments and receivables and versions of trade finance, “buy now, pay later” companies, and home-improvement loans. He explained that Arena can lend against these assets, own a piece of the business, and benefit from helping these companies transition to a place where they can tap banks or the securitization markets for financing.

Arena is also looking at potential deals among small- and mid-cap public companies that don’t have access to banks or private equity firms, and for opportunities in the “convergence of private convertibles and SPACs,” or Special Purpose Acquisition Companies. To complete transactions,SPACswill have to do private convertibles to access enough capital independent of the number of people who will exercise their right to redeem at the end of the SPAC period, Zwirn explained.

“If even a fraction of these Great Rationalization storms come to pass (and even if they elapse in a fraction of the time relative to historical precedents), these will prove to have been valuable investments, as the ‘other side’ will present myriad opportunities, such as non-performing loans, rescue financings, DIP loans, M&A financing, refinancing of loans, hard-asset purchases and liquidations, and new borrowing.”