Bruce Blythe，CME组
AT A GLANCE
- 粮食生产者进入pandemic-era plantin三分之一g season with some traditional and new risks ahead, highlighting the need for risk management tools
- Short-dated new crop options offer more flexibility in marketing decisions for farmers, say introducing brokers
Farmers are in the uncertainty business, constantly at the mercy of difficult-to-predict forces such as commodity prices, geopolitics and weather.
The past two years, however, were hardly business as usual, as the COVID-19 pandemic roiled markets and economies and exposed farmers’ traditional grain options-based hedging strategies as not always well-suited for fast-moving times.
As another growing season looms, CME’s short-dated new-crop options have emerged as a handy tool to help farmers, as well as grain processors and others in agriculture, lower hedging costs and help protect against “Black Swan” disruptions, as well as more predictable events, such as USDA crop reports, said Jack Hainline, Risk Advisor at Advance Trading Inc.
“对于农民而言，过去两年真正说明了在营销决策方面需要更大的灵活性，”Hainline表示。
“A lot of producers that did not hedge with options made emotional decisions when the market tanked after Covid hit in 2020 that they normally wouldn’t have made,” Hainline said. “Not having price floors in place with an option hedge can cause that sort of panicked reaction. The counter effect happened when grain prices rallied after markets recovered leading into the spring of 2021.”
As we head into another planting season in the U.S., we discussed with Hainline and Matt Huston, a broker with New Frontier Capital Markets, three main risks to watch for producers during the spring.
巴西的第二作物
巴西的第二个或“Safrinha”，玉米作物，占该国每年玉米产量的四分之三，在美国冬季种植，并在8月之间收获。影响Safrinha作物展望的天气和其他因素可以影响美国粮食价格，在将种子放入土壤之前，呈现出基于短期的选择的套期保值机会。
This year, persistent drought has slashed harvest prospects in southern Brazil and other key crop areas, sending corn futures rallying above $6 a bushel to seven-month highs. Environments like this can cause a disconnect between old-crop and new-crop futures, meaning hedging new-crop production using standard put options that derive value from old crop futures won't serve as an adequate hedge, Hainline said.
例如，美国农民人员在1月份寻求对冲2022年秋季收获可能倾向于购买7月份保护受害者的选择。然而，在美国种植前景扩展的同时，萨姆沙作物前景缩减的情景创造了潜在的粮食市场“反转”，其中7月期货集会，而12月价格下跌。
“如果生产者购买标准的7月份选项，那么它在这个环境中没有擅长，”Hainline说。“他们需要保护他们实际上的”未来“。这是一个很好用例，说明为什么介绍了短期选择的选择。在这种情况下，农民将更好地提供7月短日期的选择，因为它的价值来自于2022年12月期货，而不是7月2022年的合同。“
Early indications are that producers are adopting this approach in 2022. Short-Dated New Crop options open interest – the number of outstanding contracts – was already over 100,000 in late February, while February average daily trading volume was almost double 2021.
春天天气
在美国早期生长季节的春天天气中的更加传统风险可以随时弹出，几乎快速消失。这是通过选项的短期覆盖范围的另一个原因可能是有用的。
“如果它是一个潮湿的春天，农民的作物”旋转“可能会发生变化，这意味着他们最终植入种植的种植面积可能会发生变化，”赫尤登说。“农民在他们确切地知道他们进入田地之前以及在种植季节期间如何进入该领域之前，农民不喜欢将现金销售到粮食电梯或最终用户。”他补充说，凭借短期的新作物选项，“您可以覆盖您的种植窗口”，并以较低的成本为止，“他补充说。
Early indications from美国干旱监控在历史上，显示了一些在历史上生长的地区的水平。这是一个典型的LaNiña年的模式，干燥的条件可以通过春天蔓延到中西部，影响玉米和大豆的一些较高的生产区域。
Huston还突出了短日期选择在冬季或早春由于较低的保费提供了优势。
与标准11月大豆和12月玉米期权相比，短期新作物选项的保费通常为便宜约30％。
For example, a May short-dated new-crop corn put option with a $5.40 strike price (and linked to December corn futures), could have been purchased in late January at a premium of 10 cents. The standard put option had a premium of 37 1/2 cents, meaning the short-dated version was 27 1/2 cents cheaper.
By purchasing the $5.40 short-dated put, a farmer could have effectively established a price floor for 5,000 bushels of corn at $5.30 ($5.40 minus the 10-cent premium). The put expires April 22, but the buyer in this example was not seeking protection beyond that date.
“If futures drop under $5.30, you’d be in the money and profit as prices fell further,” Huston said. “If prices rise, you let the option expire worthless, but you paid less for it than a traditional options.”
Prospective Plantings Report
哈斯顿说，在一年的一年中，大约有八个计划的市场移动事件，例如美国农业部的潜在观众报告，春季种植和秋季收获，可以改变农民的收入和收入前景。农民可以挑选出两三个活动，并使用短期的选择来防止较短的市场风险。
Recent circumstances, includingsoaring fertilizer costs那drought in South America and Russia-Ukraine tensions, set this year’s Prospective Plantings report for even greater potential to produce surprises and wide market swings, Huston said.
“我们有很多投入成本，如肥料，高于正常年，”赫尔顿说。“潜在的种植报告可能会产生比大多数多年的挥发性更多，这是一份历史上挥发性源的报告。”
美国农民在去年生成了记录净收入，商品价格仍然历史高，但提高作物的成本也是如此。Hainline表示，随着套期保值和营销策略，敏捷尤为重要。
“农民有一个惊人的2021年，我们正在举办一些潜在的大型利润率，盯着谷物生产商盯着谷物，”Hainline说。“但通货膨胀是整个经济的祸根，而且农业没有什么不同。亚慱体育app怎么下载在价格下降时，在价格下降时，在多年的时间里，这同样重要的是。“