固定收益市场在ESG革命中的关键作用

经过雷蒙德·萨加亚姆（Raymond Sagayam），，，，Chief Investment Officer, Fixed Income at Pictet Asset Management

Some might argue that building a sustainable economy is a technological problem. It isn’t. The world is sufficiently stocked with greenhouse gas-reducing technologies such as renewable fuels, carbon capture and energy storage. What it lacks is capital. According to the International Energy Agency, investments in clean energy alone will have to rise to an annual USD 4 trillion by the end of this decade to keep global warming in check. Realistically, funding on that scale can only come from the financial market – bond investors in particular.

令人鼓舞的是，固定收益市场似乎取决于任务。随着政府，公司和投资者加强其气候承诺，嵌入环境，社会和治理（ESG）考虑的证券处于占上风（ESG标记债券的关键特征）。

具有特定使用要求的绿色固定收益证券，与发行人的环境证书和社会债券相关的可持续性挂钩债券，资助教育计划只是一些创新的结构的例子。到目前为止，投资者已经热情地做出了反应。在2021年，成功放置了超过1.1万亿美元的新可持续债券，将ESG债券市场的规模远高于2万亿美元。国际金融研究所（IIF）对Pictet资产管理进行的研究表明，到2025年，发行每年的发行速度可能为每年4.5万亿美元。

While most of that capital will be raised in the developed world, much of it can also be expected to come in the form of emerging market ESG bonds. It is essential that it does. For developing economies, private finance is crucial if they are to fulfil the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030.

然而，要使可持续债务成为主流，需要谈判一些障碍。直接优先级是普遍的规则和标准。目前，可持续债券的标签和认证因一个国家而异，而协调披露要求的努力并没有取得太大的成功。

An analysis of the ESG securities with the longest track record – green bonds – reveals other potential trade-offs. Green bonds have delivered similar returns to non-green debt, yet they trade a premium: their yields tend to be persistently lower than those of traditional securities. This is despite the fact that green bonds are less liquid. Our analysis shows that such securities trade less often, in some cases far less often, than conventional fixed income. This reinforces our belief that purchasers of green and sustainability-linked bonds tend to be ‘buy and hold’ 亚博赞助欧冠institutional investors such as pension funds, insurance funds and sovereign wealth funds. What it also suggests, however, is that the secondary market for such debt is not mature enough to absorb large buy or sell orders without precipitating significant shifts in price.

Ultimately, none of these hurdles are insurmountable. If world leaders are genuinely committed to net zero, they will also recognise that these ambitions require capital to flow freely. Which is why, in the battle against climate change, bond investors could soon find themselves in the front line.

ESG债券太大而无法忽略

随着ESG问题主导着国际政策议程，随着投资者对新ESG金融产品和服务的需求继续增长 - 全球债务市场以及扩展固定收益投资组合将要进行根本性的转型。ESG债务宇宙不仅在规模上，而且在其包含的各种工具以及IT资金范围的范围方面都在迅速扩展。

It's an expansion that opens up new frontiers for investors. The opportunity now exists to build diversified portfolios that can fulfil both financial and non-financial goals – the mitigation of climate change, the protection of biodiversity and the promotion of social cohesion have become possible through bond investments.

At the same time, the growing importance of ESG factors has given both public and private sector borrowers unprecedented ability to tap sustainable debt markets and secure funding at attractive rates. With national and corporate net-zero commitments becoming more ambitious over the course of 2021, demand for low-carbon energy investments and technological innovation has boosted issuance of ESG securities. Total ESG debt issuance (bond and loans) during the first three quarters of 2021 reached USD 1.1 trillion, exceeding totals for the whole of 2020.

ESG Bonds Projected to Reach USD 35 Trillion by 2030

然而，尽管他们的所有活力，ESG债务市场尚未获得资助过渡到低碳经济所需的规模。为此，ESG债务市场的进一步发展至关重要 - 并且沿着几个方面。在可持续金融分类法（正在进行的努力中包括国际可持续金融平台）和ESG披露（尤其是IFRS国际可持续性标准委员会）方面的进步将促进市场发展更快。此外，关于ESG评级机构如何收集，分析和计算主权和公司ESG指标的更高透明度也可以提高对ESG债务证券的需求和供应。

这样的变化将是变革的。他们将向债券投资者提醒新的投资机会，同时直接将私营部门的资金用于可持续发展目标（SDGS）。在这种情况下，我们认为全球ESG标记的债券发行在短短五年内的年度速度可能为4.5万亿美元。到2030年，ESG和与气候一致的债券的销售量可能达到60万亿美元，相当于整个全球债券市场的三分之一。

考虑到这一切，假设政府和监管机构将继续关注可持续性，我们的基线估计表明，年度ESG标记的债券发行可能从2020年的5250亿美元上升到超过525亿美元，达到2025年的2.3万亿美元。

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